Framing the Future in the Southern United States Climate, Land Use, and Forest Conditions

Developing the Ensemble of Climate Models ................................................................................. 10 Developing the Cornerstone Futures ................................................................................................ 11 Final Set of Futures ..................................................................................................................... 14 Summary ..................................................................................................................................... 15 Land-Use Models ............................................................................................................................. 16 Forest Conditions Models ................................................................................................................ 16 Variation across the Cornerstone Futures ........................................................................................ 17 Outlook for Climate ......................................................................................................................... 19 Output from Ensembles ............................................................................................................... 19 Output from Cornerstone Futures .................................................................................................... 20 Outlook for Land Use ...................................................................................................................... 25 Urban Land Uses ......................................................................................................................... 25 Forest Land Uses ......................................................................................................................... 27 Other Land Uses .......................................................................................................................... 28 Outlook for Forest Conditions ......................................................................................................... 30 Forest Area .................................................................................................................................. 30 Forest Biomass ............................................................................................................................ 34 Forest Carbon .............................................................................................................................. 36 Forest Composition and Age Classes .......................................................................................... 37 Conclusions ...................................................................................................................................... 41 References ........................................................................................................................................ 41